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CNBC
Dec 30, 2012 11:00pm EST
, it's the law. full-time workers in france are guaranteed at least five weeks vacation and a maximum 35-hour work week, with no paid overtime allowed. and not everyone is thrilled about working even 35 hours. >> the aim is to keep your job without working. >> welcome to 60 minutes on cnbc. i'm leslie stahl. in this episode, we'll examine our relationship with work. how much is too much, too little, and who should decide? but before we look at the hours we spend on the job, we'll look at how employers tried to influence the way their workers act off the job. as morley safer reported in 2005, that cigarette or drink at home, that political candidate you supported, even your eating habits are coming under the scrutiny of your employer. if your boss doesn't approve, it might even cost you your job. >> anita epolito and cara stiffler were considered model employees at weyco, an insurance consulting firm outside of lansing, michigan. anita, 14 years on the job, cara, five. they sat side by side, sharing workloads and after work the occasional cigarette. but at a company benefits meeting tw
CNBC
Dec 30, 2012 7:30pm EST
other issues? >> different category than all the others is that it's law. it's all going to be rolling out over the next couple of years. it's very significant action in congress that would be signed by the president to alter some substantially change it. so you will see a couple of things happening there. one, some of the major taxes will roll out, three big taxes that are going to fund, although not -- we should be clear on this -- the tax on high value health insurance plans provided by employers. that won't begin until 2018. you will see changes in the medical delivery system itself. key performance for hospitals in terms of how they pay for services, moving away from pay for volume and towards pay for quality. those are going to roll out over the next year. come the end of next year 2013, we will see the massive coverage expansion where many, many, many people get the tax credit to either get private insurance or get covered by medicaid. we still expect the scale of that expansion by the beginning of 2014 to be in the range of 25 to 30 million people. they will be a lot of folks.
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 3:00pm EST
law by the president 18 months ago. it takes effect january 2nd. it was an important part of the last debt limit discussion. there's no way in the world that you can play that forward to the next debt limit discussion. that just doesn't work. the sequestration has to go forward as it is written as the president signed into law. remember all of this, the tax piece, the sequestration and don't forget obama care taxes, all of those were things signed by the president. clearly he wanted this scenario, or he wouldn't have signed those pieces of legislation. >> i would like to push a bit more on bill's previous question about tax hikes. because if i'm not wrong and do correct me if i'm wrong, you have said before that you would not vote for the elimination of a tax cut for those making over 45 450k. that is what's on the table now. would you change your mind on that? >> i'm not going to fore close any possibility until i see what is really offered. but let's be honest. from the face of it, it looks like raises taxes in order to spend more money and get us into a deeper hole than we've been
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 5:00pm EST
go from 35 under current law to 40% on estates over $5 million. that's a controversial provision, that's a win for republicans. still in some flux. on capitol gains and dividends, the rates would go from 15% under current law for 20% for people in the top income bracket. some popular tax deductions and credits from the stimulus bill, on clean energy, wind energy, education tax credits would be preserved under this deal. unemployment benefits extended for a year. there would be a doc fix. that is preventing doctors who work under medicare from having their reimbursements dramatically cut and you've had a fix to the alternative minimum tax, protecting tens of millions of families from a huge increase in their tax bill based on some provision that was originally intended only to hit people at the top. that's what we know so far but there's still elements in play and democrats have not yet scheduled a caucus meeting in the senate to sell this deal to their members. when they do that, you can expect vice president biden to go to the hill, talk to democrats, try to persuade them to vot
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 2:00pm EST
father-in-law jim lemarca and the cast of his book, "bonus time." it's sort of like "zero dark 30" kind of sort of. >> that will do it for "power lunch." >> "street signs" begins right now. >>> there is a full cornucopia of cliffs on this fiscal friday. the president plans to pop another tax proposal on congress, but will it pass? the clack is ticking. latest ahead. >>> so what would a cliff jump really mean for american business? you will hear directly as we reconvene our exclusive small biz all-star panel. >>> plus, call it the retail hu "hunger games." three companies that may not survive. >>> predictions 2013. big calls for the new year, mandy. >>> bring it on. the s&p 500 is on track for a fifth straight decline. some of the hope does seem to be coming out of the market of late for a deal. of course, there could still be time. nonetheless, what we have seen is a drop of 1.3% so far this week. indead, the s&p's longest losing streak in three months. even the good news on home sales. not helping the three major averages which are on pace for their biggest weekly drop in six weeks. ke
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 9:00am EST
law, but we want some cuts if we're going to agree to tax increases. that's a key republican demand. so all of those things are in play. each movement in any one part affects the others and we'll vus have to s just have to see where it comes out including capital gains and dividends which is i'm assuming would go 20%. that's down from 39.6 which is where they would go under current law if we go over the cliff. but it's up from 15 in both areas from where we are right now. >> last question, john, and i'll make this question. if we're talking about things like capital gains and seques r sequester, does that mean we have moved past the biggest elephant in the room, that being income levels at which taxes increase? >> i don't think we've moved past it because until they announce what a level is and until the other parts of the puzzle get settled, we can't know that for sure. and the other thing we can't know for sure is how many republicans will vote with the democrats both in the senate and in the house and will john boehner put it on the floor. my guess is he will, but we'll see when
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
. the bush-era tax law which eliminated the so-called marriage penalty for joint filers is expiring, meaning with couples with next as little as $80,000 would be subject to taxation at the rate of the higher earning spouse. a nationwide survey done byic which chick chicago-based northern trust, yes, they've been more proactive in planning for the cliff versus those with $1 million or less and finally, that same survey had 44% of high net worth individuals saying their top priority for the country is economic growth and reducing unemployment versus 19% for reducing the federal budget deficit. tax reform and to end the washington gridlock is also on the wish list, michelle. >> mine, too. >> thanks, hampton. >>> once again, the big story tonight, no fiscal cliff deal and not even a new offer from the white house. three days to go. president obama asked the senate leaders to try to make a deal. we'll get more on all of it from washington next. so, this board gives me rates for progressive direct and other car insurance companies? yes. but you're progressive, and they're them. yes. but t
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 4:00pm EST
kiss on the laws. >> which stocks specifically are going to suffer in home depot, radio shack, possibly shorts authority, some of the other office supply category killer stores. >> let me go in mr. glass half hull. anybody coming through had. as mentioned referenced so well. you also have you are even outfitters tutting it on ol centr retailers who have not reinvested back in the business are secularly having the shoppers shift away from them. they are going to have a tougher time. >> i think it's too late to save herb greenberg's bet with brian sullivan for this year, but you were on our show just recently, and you've turned positive for j.c. penney. >> i was a lot more positive at 17 than i do 21 and i do think the middle will do better than the upper end or the bottom. the upper end retailers will get hurt because of the tax rates and the lower end hurt because of social security taxes. guys in the middle will do better. the place to be will be the mossle so thenny's will have better numbers in q q4. >> felt like we were talking to stadler on this one. >> does that make us
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 12:00pm EST
after them so aggressively. i think they've hired up david boyes law firm, did microsoft and the u.s. and bush vs. gore. this is the law firm from that. i think this is a big deal and they're going to go after him hard. >> you're telling me you'd buy the stock? >> i did a few days ago but unfortunately liquidated it two days ago when it was 28. i mean, this stock traded down into the 25, 24 range. >> it is not only that. the stock has come from 50 down to 30. people are taking gains on their shorts. >> stocks may be down for a fifth straight day but our next guest sees that as an opportunity to buy, alec young, global equity strategist. >> great to be here. >> we gave the shorter-term traders something to chew on. if you are a longer-term investor are you focused at all on the cliff and should you be? >> i am. because it is going to determine my entry point. frankly the worse it gets the better because it means i get to buy stock cheaper. the cliff is all about when do you get long? i think it is the risk reward is nicely set up for risk assets into 2013. it's just a question of do y
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 4:00pm EST
originate in the house so it's got no chance whatsoever of becoming law, end quote. that's what i said back on july 25th. the only reason we ever allowed that vote on that proposal, as i said at that time, was that we knew it didn't pass constitutional muster and that democrats were really serious they would proceed to a revenue bill that originated in the house, as the constitution requires, and as i called on them to do again last week. to repeat, the so-called senate bill is nothing more than a glorified sense of the senate resolution so let's put that convenient talking point aside from here on out. last night i told the president we'd be happy to look at whatever he proposes, but the truth is we're coming up against a hard deadline here, and as i said this is a conversation we should have had months ago. and republicans aren't about to write a blank check for anything senate democrats put forward just because we find ourselves at the edge of the cliff. that wouldn't be fair to the american people. that having been said, we'll see what the president has to propose. members on both sides
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 2:00pm EST
. >> apple versus samsung, a pimi series. >> i went to law school while i was working and people said, why are you going to law school when have you a career? i said, a, it won't be long, knowing me. >> 9 1/2 hours before the fiscal fiasco. john has breaking news at the white house. what do you have, john? >> i have news just confirmed bay white house official. there is two ways to raise money from people in income. one is by raising rates. we talk about the clinton rate of 39.6 being $400,000 for individuals and 450,000 for couples. but there is going to be a letter right rait under it tentative deal, still emerging, for the phase out of deductions and credits. that phase-out would begin at incomes of $250,000 for individuals and $300,000 for couples. that means that the president can say that he had campaigned on raising taxes over incomes of 250,000 in this instance for this purpose, of winding down deductions and credits, he can say that. now again, this doesn't get into the revenue goals that he sought initially in the deal but a way for him it signal to democrats that in fact i'm try
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 9:00am EST
shiller, the law firm. not clear why they would hire a law firm at this point. no reason given. they have hired them, which is another, hmm, wonder what they're up to kind of move. bob pisani is on the floor with what's moving today. >> we're up 24 points in the dow. and a lot of people think a grand bargain is impossible at this point. but president obama coming back from vacation in hawaii. that's an indication that some kind of deal -- however small -- is definitely coming. i want to point out, and i know you've been negative on this mastercard data on retail sales, and everybody thinks it's going to be a mess for the holiday season. i want to point out that the stocks are not acting that way. that this is a disaster for the season. the s&p retail index hit an historic high on december 3rd. historic high. since then, it has only been down about 3%. these stocks are not acting like there's a disaster. i can give you several reasons why they're not down so far. number one, we are going to see eps growth in the fourth quarter from some of them because of the extra week that there is. numb
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 4:00am EST
already racked up through the laws that they passed. >>> the budget deal boosts asian stocks in hong kong and australia hitting 19-month highs in the first trading session of the year. >>> european equities also share a deal out of washington despite more gloom from the eurozone. manufacturing has continued to contract according to the latest pmi. >>> okay. 2013, a warm welcome to viewers of "worldwide exchange." my special families to a family called the wards. thank you for hosting my family over the new year. personalities out of the way, eurozone, still looking glum despite the market reaction to the fiscal cliff deal this morning. to recap, the eurozone december following manufacturer pmi, 46.1, the flash was 46.3. the final output index, 46, weaker than the 46.1 flash, 46.1 in december. and the november number for orders 44.2. the eurozone in sort of the slowdown in the eurozone factory activity deepening in december. new orders falling. in spain it was worse, as well. let's get reaction to that despite the risk on sentiment. we have global head of foreign exchange with us
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 4:00am EST
half of those cuts in defense law? >> well, congress agreed they would cut an additional $1.2 trillion in spending. they put a committee together to try to come up with those numbers. they didn't figure out how to do it. so what we now have is a situation where these automatic spending cuts go into place. now, if we have raised some revenue by the wealthy paying a little bit more, that would be sufficient to turn off what is so-called the sequester, these automatic spending cuts, and that also would have a better outcome for our economy long-term. but, you know, so far, at least, congress has not been able to get this stuff done, not because democrats in congress don't want to go ahead and cooperate, but because i think it's been very hard for speaker boehner and republican leader mcconnell to accept the fact that taxes on the wealthiest americans should go up a little bit as part of an overall deficit reduction package. >> you talk about a dysfunction in washington. you sign this legislation setting up a fiscal cliff 17 months ago. how accountable are you for the fact that wa
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 11:00pm EST
from the headlines, just like an episode of "law and order." a couple of day ago, there was a piece in the "washington post" saying that auto sales saved the economy in 2012. we likely sold 14.5 million vehicles, the highest number of new vehicles sold since the financial crisis. in today's "wall street journal" we see another headline, u.s. auto sales forecast to break 15 million in 2013. when do they suggest the number of vehicles sold this year could be closer to 15.4 million. earlier today, cnbc's own phil lebeau was saying it could be 15.5 million autos this year. tomorrow we're going to find out about december auto sales numbers and i think it's going to be terrific. hurricane sandy wrecked hundreds of thousands of cars that need to be replaced. bloomberg surveyed a bunch of analysts and they're predicting a 9.8% increase for december. put it all together and the domestic auto market is clearly on fire. in fact, it's giving rise to maybe, just maybe, one of my best ideas for 2013. we still got a tremendous amount of pent-up demand in this country. the average car on the road is a
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 11:00pm EST
some law of reverse gravitation. it's been a lousy strategy, if it's a strategy at all, if you can even call it that. but in recent years, let's just say it's been really horrific. think about it. for the last five years, the middle of 2007 and 2012, s&p declined by 9%. when you look at the benchmark's performance over the first decade of the new millennium, s&p was down 24%. though you only did lose 9% in those ten years when you factor in reinvested dividends, which is why i'm always telling you to own some high yield dividend stocks. even factoring dividends, you were better off hiding money in a mattress than buying and holding. the strategy didn't work. let me give you some advice that you almost never hear. i want to talk about a forbidden term. some say it's a curse word. marks me as a charlatan. i want to talk about selling. selling. every stock you buy you should consider comes with an expiration date. again, radical. knowing when to sell those stocks is every bit as important as knowing when to buy the stocks. in fact, it's actually more critical because so many people ma
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 1:00pm EST
35% and current law scheduled to go up to 35 and would probably go up slightly to 40%. you are looking at one year extension of unemployment benefits pen you a honk do they defer across the board automatic budget cuts called sequester. as amman referred to, dekrats want at least one year for that to be turned off. initially asking for two years. republicans say, no, we will come up with cuts to offset that for 60 to 90 days. that's where things are going. the problem is you can't consider any one part of the agreement done until they are all done because there's an inner play on cap gains and dividends by the way, looking at going from 15% on both which is current policy to 20% on both. not the higher rate called for undercurrent law of 39.6% for dividends. 20% for both. this is something that both sides are going to have to consider. see if they can regard it as acceptable it their members. once we get a conclusion to those talks, everything nailed down, then well find out whether this is bipartisan support in the senate and whether that induces speaker bainer to put a bill on
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 7:00pm EST
ceiling until we actually get the solution to the problem enacted into law. >> that might be the strategy. in other words, small increments on a monthly or bimonthly basis, instead of holding up the debt and defaulting, which would drop our credit, you're saying the gop may call for small increments until a real spending cut package can be worked out. is that the strategy? >> that would be my strategy. i would love to solve this problem by the end of february early march. that's not going to happen because president obama is utterly unwilling to rein in the size of government. we're going to have to message, message, message. pound home that point. maybe do something incrementally, message again. give something. continue concessions until we fix this problem once and for all. >> senator ron johnson, sir, happy new year. as always, thank you for joining us. >> same to you. have a good night. >>> in yet another sizzling story tonight, the question is whether john boehner is in danger of losing his job as speaker of the house. the conservative rumor mill is just running wild over th
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 6:00am EST
cuts and making them permanent. i've never accepted this idea. current law is taxes are going up on everybody. so how can keeping that happening for 98% of the people -- >> that's the magic formula. >> -- possibly be a tax increase. so i think it would pass. but it's not going to solve the fundamental problem. there's not enough revenue here remotely to do that. actually, my argument has always been, let's get this done, and let's move on to ground our democratic friends are not very comfortable with which is spending cuts and entitlement reform because that's where a real long-term deal has to happen. >> let me just say, you know, if tom cole had been part of these negotiations from the beginning, probably we wouldn't be here on the precipice right now. because i accept his premise, which is, what we all know -- >> you saying he should be speaker? >> that's really helping me a lot. >> i don't want to get my friend in trouble here. but what i'm saying is we all know that starting, you know, tomorrow, all the taxes reset. we have a $5 trillion tax increase. so what we've been saying
CNBC
Jan 3, 2013 9:00am EST
records. so per se, we're not sure that the laws took into account every stunt that might be pulled to try to defeat transparency laws but we know how it is being used was defeating transparency law is. we're finding lawyers on the correspondence, finding possible successors to lisa jackson. her acting replacement is on the correspondence i have so far. at least a lot of questions are now being asked by congress and purportedly by epa's inspector general. >> chris, a couple of years ago my kids were really fascinated -- there was a youtube showing if you put three cell phones around a couple of kernels of corn they popped. they really don't in life. fracking. they show youtubes of water on fire. can you speak to that? >> yeah, sure. the famous clip of a faucet water igniting has been ignited for 100 years. the implication was it was because of fracking when in fact it has nothing to do with it. there was i think a regulator but an activist caught staging another issue where they were actually igniting the gas relief valve, not the water. you see matt damon's movie lifted its plot from
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 6:00am EST
working with the law firm-by-schiller, in connection with the fight with billackman. shorting the company. last week he revealed he had been shorting the stock. the "wall street journal" saying it's not clear what counsel the corporate litigator could be offering herbalife, you can imaginin it's going to get tough and aggressive. at some point we've got to talk about julian -- julian robertson on twitter. if we'll consider that a headline. if he's on twitter -- >> did you know about this? >> no. >> there's a handle -- >> i've seen other people that it's obviously not them -- >> this could be him, though. and there's a big debate. a raging debate going on line about whether julian robertson is actually tweeting or not. you have a view? >> i -- i'm going shy away from this conversation other than -- >> we need to find out, though. >> other than to say it's a raging debate. >> i e-mailed him. this julian robertson -- >> how do you know you're e-mailing the right one? >> wow. >> because i have e-mailed with him previously. so i believe it's a verified address. i believe it's a real address. t
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 1:00pm EST
the cliff. the bush era tax law eliminated the marriage clause meaning that incomes of couples earning as little as $80,000 would be subject to taxation at the rate of the higher earning spouse. now as far as their wealth preservation strategies, a nationwide survey done by northern trust found high net worth persons, more than 5 million in assets, are much more proactive in anticipating the tax consequences of going over the cliff than those with a million dollars or less in assets. that same survey had 44% of high net worth individuals saying their top priority for the country is economic growth and reducing unemployment versus 19% who are reducing the federal budget deficit. >> all right, hampton. thank you very much. >>> the finance.yahoo.com poll puts you in the shoes of a member of congress. how would you handle the fiscal cliff? go vote finance.yahoo.com. the results are coming up. there you see your options. michelle. >>> tyler, one of cnbc's best known traders making a very bold call. get out of everything, everything, all cash. get the take of other -- two other wall street t
CNBC
Jan 1, 2013 8:00pm EST
, lawful wife of the greatest financial criminal in history. why haven't you filed for a divorce from this man? >> i don't know. it doesn't matter to me. he's gonna die in prison. i certainly don't want to find another man these days. >> he'll probably see this interview. are you concerned about-- >> i was thinking about that. no, i'm not concerned. he should hear it. >> believe her or not, the thousands of victims may have little sympathy for andrew and ruth, but it can't be denied that they, too, are victims of bernie madoff. that's mark and andrew? >> mm-hmm. [tearfully] in happier times. >> they lost a son and brother and will forever carry the shame of the madoff name. >> what he did to me, to my brother, and to my family is unforgivable. what he did to thousands of other people, destroyed their lives, i'll never understand it. and i'll never forgive him for it. and i'll never speak to him again. >> in june 2012, bernie madoff's younger brother peter pled guilty to charges of conspiracy and falsifying books and records of an investment advisor. as part of his plea bargain, peter
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 6:00am EST
edwards, and $100 million net worth. >> correct. so big payday for law firm and toyota deal. the big firm, of the winner, hagans berman. do you know them? >> no. >> seattle based law firm that serves as the lead council in the class action set to receive more than $300 million. not bad work if you can get it. >> how much? >> $300 million. taking a third. a little less than a third. >> -- magnetic business cards as the ambulance passes by. >> right. >> i would buy some stock in those today, right? for these guys. you wonder why texas is doing a little built better. because they have put in some rules in place. i'm sorry. >> no. >> you come from a lawyer. >> i do. but we -- my dad doesn't have magnetic business cards. we don't do ambulances. >> no, you were on the good side of things, wasn't he? >> most of the time. >> all right. not all the time? all right. yeah, you did have that sign, i forgot, from the smoker's litigation, where did that -- asbestos? where did that come from? >> the steinway? >> dock workers at four u.s. ports in the pacific northwest will remain on the job despite
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 4:00am EST
guidance to employers on what will be the tax withholding rates for 2013. under the laws, those withholding rates are supposed to go up because, as you know, all thoughts tax cuts that were passed over a decade ago were supposed to expire. and the irs is basically on the sideline waiting to see what happens on the hill between them and the president to see if, in fact, there's a reason to tell the current employers, hold on, there will be a freeze on those rates. if, in fact, they have to go to the new guidance, consumers will start to feel very early the hit to their paychecks of having gone over the fiscal cliff, even if there's auto deal that retroactively drags us back over the top of the cliff. >> it's an interesting point. greg, thank you so much. such a mess. >>> it was better news at the box office lately. hollywood is on track to post an all-time box office record this year. film lovers have flocked the theaters to see christmas day performances of les miserables and "unchanged." >>> stick around. still to come on the show, the summer olympics and u.s. election made to
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 4:00pm EST
personal exemptions. there's something called a personal exemption phase out in this law which limits your ability to take tax exemptions such as your kids. those are almost entirely phased out by $500,000 worth of income, and then there's something known as pease which is named after the congressman who invented it, a cap on your deductions for over 250,000, so that they don't have so many deductions they escape tax liability all together. if you make $300,000 a year, you're 50,000 over the threshold and a formula is applied to all of the deductions. in this case you have to subtract about 1,500 bucks off your itemized deduction tote a. that's an across-the-board haircut on deductions so it's going to impact everything you typically deduct, like your mortgage or charitable giving or anything. both of these new taxes hit people well below the much publicized $450,000 limit. that's going to surprise some taxpayers come next year, bill. >> once again, another bill that is a tax accountant employment act. >> absolutely. >> right? >> financial planners, too. >> thanks for understan
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 12:00pm EST
we will see tax laws selling. we have not seen. we have seen gains selling, people taking gains. when they start taking these loss and when all the rest of this stuff kicks in, that's when i worry these guys will make an even worse deal in panic in january. >> let's go to our guests. what is the best way to protect your money with the cliff deadline a few days away, jason pride, director of glenn me. how are you doing? how do you perceive the markets with a couple days of trade iin left? >> i kind of agree with the consternation and concern of washington and everybody there. we look at the position of one of three possibility, back to upside normalized growth, complete downside recession. and the middle of the road scenario, we begrudge this and keep doing it sloppily every once in a while, as we have been recently but manage to make our way longer term. we think that scenario is more likely and the upside has to be discounted and downside scenario we have to recognize is not an immaterial risk. positioning portfolios, this is not an environment to hide and cash in treasuries but not
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 3:00pm EST
thanks to the health care law. still that's viewed as a favorable outcome for those dividend dash paying stocks because the fear was -- >> 40%. >> it was going to go to 40%. eff cox says t note our own dividend-paying stocks may pose some of dangers investors are missing regardless of that friendly tax rate. even as ryan lorenza, our u.s. extis strategy for tds thinks dividend stocks will pay off. jeff, why are you concerned? >> let me talk about a couple of issues. the one you is guys talked about before. we are in the early innings of this whole fiscal cliff mess and the sequestration and what not. it's going to create a lot of volatility in the market. dividend stocks underperformed last year only with a 5% return. i think they will underperform this year. second point is that we saw in december a lot of special dividend issues happening. i think that was sort of a pull forward kind of demand, and they didn't even do that well when the special dividends were happening. finally i just kind of think when you look at the growth versus value, that if these boring old dividend stocks won't
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 9:00am EST
, analyses against what had been current law before this passed show that the deficit is going to be a lot bigger. of course, that's why we avoided the fiscal cliff, because people were staring in the face that the amount of deficit reduction they thought this economy couldn't take right now. >> hey, john, does this whole battle change the political swing of power, balance of power as we go into these rough couple of months into the sequester? i'm just wondering, because guggenheim came out with a note that it's raising the odds of a default on debt from 20% to 10%. they said the brinksmanship we saw in this level and what the republicans have on this fiscal cliff. >> republicans say they have leverage on the debt ceiling. the president says forget about it, i'm not negotiating with you. one of those positions is going to have to give. and we'll see. i think it is logical to say that the odds of a default have risen to some degree because that issue's not been taken off the table. i don't think it fundamentally changes the balance of power, melissa. the president is on the side of publ
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 6:00am EST
guess most people would rather enforce existing laws. they're not enforced. but did you see this gallup, a new record for people that oppose handgun bans. 74%. it's never been that high. 24% -- more people apparently would ban piers morgan from ever appearing on tv again than would ban handguns. that's much higher consensus on that. which i think -- which would be good for everybody, i think. >> look, there are a lot of cross currents here, joe. you're right. i mean i think there's very strong sentiment that something big has to change. >> background checks, you know what? you definitely got to -- you should do that. >> gun show loopholes >> there's some simple things. but actually questioning the second amendment, that's counterproductive. i'm telling you. for people that do that. it's counter productive. anyway -- >> very special thanks to eamon and to jared. happy holidays if we don't see you before the new year. but i think given this conversation we might be talking cliff even on monday. >> thanks. >> coming up, businesses bracing for the fiscal cliff. we'll ask chairman and ceo th
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 4:00am EST
taxes go up. there is an endless list of expiring provisions of law that will, in fact, expire if nothing is done. and i think even if something is done at this point, what you're looking at is something very scaled back, something very small and congress will have to come back next year and take a look at trying to get to some of those other issues. >> alistair here. that sounds about right to me, assuming that that scenario is how things play out. what sort of impact medium term do you think this is going to have on consumer and corporate confidence in america, given that the fiscal cliff is clearly weighed heavily on both of those in recent months? >> the sad thing, you know, from an observer's standpoint here is that there isn't much corporate or consumer confidence in the american government. and it's proved itself dysfunctional time and again over the last couple of years. what you hear now is not how people believe that there's going to be some last-minute deal, but how they remember the times that the t.a.r.p. bill, the fiscal bailout a few years ago failed on the house fl
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 7:00pm EST
this conversation. >> jimmy? >> understand that the executive branch is required under federal law to notify the legislative branch that, fact, they are going to come up against the deadline, precisely why it is -- >> uses the phrase default. we are not going -- the u.s. government isn't going pay its debts. we are going to be like greece. that was -- everybody -- both sides, by the way, republicans and democrats, both used the phrase default. you know perfectly well how it works in the government. you can make choices. >> i hate to break the news to you but -- i don't think anyone other than watching cnbc anyone actually cares and nobody believes the federal government will not pay social security or other debts. >> are you kidding me? i think they do. that's what they start with. right? start with the social security checks aren't going to go out. then -- what do people do, call their congressmen? the elderly get frightened. they think they won't have their weekly paychecks. >> this would not be the first time anyone from the executive branch tried to scare senior sit sense what do
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 7:00pm EST
ensigned into law. there's no success yet there. >> boehner should move it tomorrow. he should just do that. >> jonathan? >> listen, the president campaigned on a three to one spending reduction and we're not see anything spending here. democrats controlled two-thirds of the chips. >> joy ann, why is this all about taxes? >> one reelection and the -- it doesn't do that much spending. >> it's been all about taxes. >> all about raising taxes. >> there's this obsession with raising taxes. >> it was to go after school lunches and elderly care, health care for poor kids and increased spending. >> no, no, no, they want entitlement reform, joy ann. why this obsession with cutting old people's medicare? >> it's not an obsession about cutting benefits to the elderly, joy ann. it's about reforming medicare over time so at some point in the future we don't tell an 80-year-old you know what? you're not going get the medicare cha you thought you would have. this is about not hurting the elderly. >> the republican solution is to hand 80-year-olds a voucher and saying good luck, go into the markets a
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 2:00pm EST
advisor and a law firm. is the best defense a good offense? we will talk about the stock's chances of a recovery. >>> jane wells drawing the short straw at the one place that i would not want to be today. >> reporter: well, you know, i'm glad i got here at 4:00 a.m. because i was able to find a parking space. we have been talking to all these analysts. up next, we actually talk theo couple shoppers. what are they buying and returning? does the fiscal cliff even matter? over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insue q usaa. we know what it means to serve. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ ro
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 2:00pm EST
bush tax cuts all gone away. nobody thought that would happen but that's the law. there is another way it look at it, which is what happened to the deficit as a percent gdp and that's how the market looks at it. we did these calculations. these are back of the envelope stuff. 2012, 7%, 7.2%. had the old law stayed in effect, we would have 3% point drop in gdp. but that would have been recession. no one thought that would happen. instead what you will get is more revenue relative to what you had last year, estimated, so you go down about 6%. then if you saw what happened in 14. then overtime, just so you know, doing all this stuff will add to interest cost over time about $400 billion over ten years which escalate like this as you go forward. but one more thing, i want to talk about this thing. so what happens to the deficit? the question is whether both sides will assist on more deficit reduction. that comes to a head in a couple months. here are some questions i'm calling march fiscal madness. the administration said you know what, the tax hikes offset the need foresee questfor seques
CNBC
Jan 2, 2013 6:00am EST
law was going to mean. we've got also in the bill an extension of tax credits for clean energy, for education. you've got some of the stimulus measures, expanded earned income tax credit, expanded childcare -- child exemption that was in the bill. so all of these thing are tax cuts for middle and modest income families, although they are going to lose, becky, because we did not extend the payroll tax cut, that temporary 2% cut that means about $20 a week for a family making $50,000. so that is a -- a bit of a counter drag on the economy from the whatever boost it's gotten from theection tension of middle-class tax cuts. >> i've seen that in places they're estimating as much as 0.5% of gdp growth because of the payroll tax alone. you look at that, and people expect that if you continue to want social security you're going to have to fund if t somehow. this is money that's supposed to be going to that. >> that's right. and the payroll tax cut was always intended as a temporary measure to stimulate the economy. and if you reason that you stimulate the economy until it's recovering, we'
CNBC
Jan 3, 2013 12:00pm EST
of tax law selling at the end of last year, they put up a big first quarter. that 425 will look wildly off the marc. >> are the fundamentals as strong as they once were? >> i disagree with josh, the fundamentals have changed. if the gross margin level comes in below guidance, yeah, we could be below 420. that's the bare case. product cycle story is strong. and i still think they'll put up a great quarter. >> we can't universally applaud jeff bezos for not caring about gross margins and then a breath later say apple should not launch the mini because gross mar gypp gins will go from 32 t. if that's a bear case for apple, that's a highly bullish risk/reward. >> short-term? >> i completely agree with that. apple the smart move from a business perspective right now is take your incredible profit margin and reinvest it. lower price products. >> why should they give that away because they're worried about growth margins? >> are they putting enough money to work? the cash they have? that's one of the gripes lee coop heman had, he was on "ha "halftime" yesterday. >> i think they should
CNBC
Jan 3, 2013 6:00am EST
yesterday's market story. now, it is officially law. the white house saying that president obama has signed the legislation passed by congress. as we've been discussing, another series of fiscal fights are just around the corner. s&p says the budget deal won't change its perspective on the outlook for the u.s. the state late yesterday, the agency says the budget compromise, quote, doesn't affect our view of the country's credit outlook, given that we believe yesterday's agreement does little to place the u.s.'s medium-term public finances on a more sustainable foot. . it cut the u.s. sovereign rating to double outlook in 2011. rival credit agency moody's warning that the u.s. must do more than the recently passed fiscal cliff measures if the country is to deal with its ratings outlook. the new congress will be sworn in today at noon eastern time. the 113th congress takes its oath with 56 new democrats and 38 new republicans. in the house, john boehner is expected to be re-elected speaker today. a lot of intrigue around that. speaker boehner has already announced one of the first piec
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 5:00pm EST
, which closed down 1.4% in today's trade. of course, stock has been the subject of a lot of tax law selling you be today, there appears to be a supply chain glitch, having to do with the touch screens that are used in the ipad mini. as a result, apple is likely to ship only a million ipad minis in the third quarter. it was expected to be 10 to 12 million. in the first quarter, 13 million of those ipad minis will be shipped at that time. melissa, back to you. >> mary, thank you. what does the chart tell you, guy, about apple, at this point? >> i felt like the momentum was back with it last week when it was trading in the 530 range. it wanted to push back to 550 and it falls off. i don't want to say falls off the cliff, but pushing back down towards this 500 level. so -- it pains me to say it, and i typically don't do it. here at 512, we're sort of no man's land. if you want to get back in it, hope it flushes down with a 480 and maybe on the upside, if you can get a breakout. bull right here, you're flipping a coin. >> dr. j, for a long time, apple selling off because of tax selling.
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 3:00pm EST
costs, et cetera, but you've recently said the new health care law could cause insurance premiums to doublery 2013. ? >> there's some places where the premiums will go up by 100%. a 49-year-old in texas can buy a $5,000 deductible policy that's well below the 60% threshold so if i'm at a 45% threshold policy, the and it goes up to 60%, you have a 33% increase just to moving the benefits up. >> seems crazy, that the system is broken and could still double by 2014. >> if we're going to warn americans, somebody's got to pay for it. >> how do you think it's going to pay out, who is going to or what? >> i think it won't start right away like everyone hopes it will. there won't be an october 1st, 2013, are a bright new plan available for everybody, and it's not going to be cheaper, but i think it will be a start and it will be fits rand smart. if we want to insure more americans, and in the long run if we control our krosts we can control that over time, bring in back in line. the higher proem dums you talking about, does that measly mean higher percentage for you? >> no necessarily becaus
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 4:00pm EST
of my ranch, as long as we're under the tax laws that we have in the next few days, majority of my ranch will go to my sons, and i'm basically semi-retired, shall we say. >> what -- what is happening, bob, is more and more family-owned ranches, the family is having to sell the farm or the ranch because they can't afford the taxes, and the value of those farms and ranches has gone up over the time because of the tremendous interest in farmland these days, right? >> well, most of it in our area has been bought up by outside money for recreation purposes. we live in a very scenic area. it's not all that conducive sometimes to agriculture because we only get about 14 inches of rain, but we have beautiful trout streams and wildlife, and there's been a lot of influx of people with deep pockets buying ranches in montana, and the average price in our area has gone for over 2,000 an acre which cows can't pay for so trying to keep it in the family -- >> so an unintended consequence of raising the tax and lowering the threshold is exactly that though. it's making it more difficult to pass a f
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 12:00pm EST
would mean the same. it hasn't. the law firm, these are the guys that represented bush -- rather, gore against bush and microsoft versus the united states. they're the who's who of companies. >> david b 0oyce, he's the fame attorney. >> that's right. this is not playing around. this is going after ackman. there could be some tortious interference here. we'll have to see how big they can make. >> barry manilow, really? >> that was a song. >> come on. >> i'm with weiss on that. i don't know. >> everybody is thinking it. he said it. >> he's the man that wrote the song. >> christmas dinner with barry. >> here it is. >> we know what he got for christmas. >> it's an emotional time of year now. >> who gave it to him. >> we know what he got. >> are you going to let any lyrics come through? all right. we'll move on as "the wall street journal" highlights, the turf wars between apple, amazon, google is heating up. let's trade it. between apple, between google, between amazon and facebook, which stock is going to emerge as the biggest winner next year? >> apple and google, i stick with appl
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 9:00am EST
rule of law is not widespread enough in the continent. there is a glimmer of hope such as sun nish sha. countries such as egypt still questionable. we have seen mass rioting there and growing concerns whether the new rule of law and new constitution will effectively protect investors. >> just a few years ago, there were maybe 10 frontier emerging funds. now, there's more than 300. they're the hot thing. remember, even if there is growth there, very little liquidity. that's not a real place for mom and pop investors. that's still a white knuckle place even if there is growth. >> i'm looking at global industries 52 week highs, turkey, france, uk. lithuania, japan. can those do well? >> i think so. they're coming off their bottom. europe 20 through wh-- europe 2 what was our 2008. >> you think merkel gets re-elected? >> at this point. she seems to be doing okay. if merkel gets re-elected, she will be a major outlier. the general rule of thumb for almost all politician, you never survive a debt crisis. germany doesn't have a debt crisis, the rest of europe. she may survive compared to ever
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